United States Department of Transportation
i
Long-term Transportation Management Strategies in the Context of Low-density Development at the Urban Fringe
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2024-09-02
[PDF-1.27 MB]
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Edition:Draft Final Report 7/25/2022 – 1/24/2023
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Abstract:Urban sprawl, marked by the extensive growth of low-density development at the edges of cities, has been heavily shaped by factors like population growth, rising incomes, and the expansion of highways since the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956. This growth has altered transportation patterns, particularly leading to a decline in public transportation usage as more people move to suburban areas. Managing sustainable urban growth presents challenges due to the diverse functions of urban areas and the uncertainties associated with urban expansion. This research introduces a scenario-based approach (SBA) combined with the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method to develop transportation management strategies that address the primary drivers of urban sprawl. The study identified 46 political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL) factors, which were further refined through expert surveys and fuzzy DEMATEL analysis to pinpoint the key influential factors and their cause-effect relationships. The results highlight ten critical factors, such as Government Budget and Land Use Planning, essential for creating scenarios and strategies for sustainable urban growth. Using the scenario planning method in a Delphi survey, the research developed long-term transportation management strategies by evaluating extreme scenarios of critical uncertainty factors. The scenarios developed in this research offer crucial insights for government transportation agencies, enabling informed decision-making to support sustainable urban growth. They help agencies proactively manage risks, optimize resource allocation, and engage the public in discussions about urban futures. Additionally, the scenarios foster interagency collaboration, facilitating a coordinated approach to complex urban challenges.
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