United States Department of Transportation
i
Exploring General Aviation Pilots’ Response to Graphical Presentation of Probabilistic Weather
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2019-09-01
[PDF-4.14 MB]
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Abstract:Probabilistic weather displays depict the chance of encountering heavy weather at a given place at a given future time. As such, they offer more information than deterministic displays, which merely show the results of running one single weather model one single time. However, the issues involved in the use of these displays are complex, and it would be a mistake to assume that pilots can quickly learn to interpret and use them effectively. Unlike most meteorologists touting such displays, most pilots do not have formal training in probability theory or application. Moreover, it is human nature for most of us to believe that we understand complex phenomena better than we actually do. To put such a device to the test, we created a part-task computer simulation of a looping probabilistic weather forecasting display, a looping deterministic forecasting display, and a historical-weather-only display (similar to current looping NEXRAD, showing only past weather). We then tested 18 general aviation pilots using the three displays on nine weather scenarios. As a group, pilots reported that they felt able to navigate around heavy weather with 10-minute weather updates and 30 minutes' lookahead on the two forecasting displays, but would have preferred 5-minute updates. They preferred the two forecasting displays significantly more than the looping-NEXRAD-type display, and felt the forecast displays would keep them significantly safer, with the probabilistic display superior to the deterministic, although not significantly so. They felt that all three display types took about the same amount of mental effort to use, and would require about the same amount of training and practice to achieve proficiency. As individuals, analysis of individual differences, however, showed considerable variability in these preferences and opinions. In other words, not every pilot preferred the forecasting displays. Nor did all think they would be effortless to use and quick to master. Finally, a logical and mathematical analysis of the factors involved in displaying and using probabilistic weather displays reveals a substantial number of non-trivial challenges. The issue of whether or not these can be successfully mitigated by technology and training will require further investigation. It does seem possible that inclusion of the ability to "scroll back and forth, forward in time," plus addition of a range ring around the aircraft icon may be sufficient, and sufficiently easy to learn, for the average pilot to safely avoid heavy weather.
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